The Hunger Games debuts less than expected but still amazes with $158 million

Official Opening for the Hunger Games: Catching Fire- $158,074,286. Analysis coming soon...

'The Hunger Games: Catching Fire' - Opening Weekend Forecast

The latest installment in the Hunger Games franchise is boasting an impressive 85% in advance daily-ticket sales with a staggering 100% fanticipation of Fandago. It's currently outpacing Iron Man 3 to become the top-advance ticket seller of 2013. Although the Fandago numbers don't always have a direct proportionality with its percentage of ticket sales, 'Catching Fire' is poised to gross above its predecessor and possibly Iron Man 3's debut.

Opening Weekend Forecast: $186 million
Moderate Forecast: $169 million

'Thor: The Dark World' Movie Review

Marvel’s vast universe has opened roads to multiple comic-book movies that have so far been successful. Thor: The Dark World is yet another addition to Marvel’s line up of superhero movies.  With already three outings in the cinematic world, Thor’s role remains obscure—leaving his importance more comparable to a side-story. The first film in the Thor franchise was arguably a great set-up for the character but then again it was just a “start.”

Now that Marvel has another chance to cement and redefine Thor’s character, one would expect a strong sequel with more focus on what makes Thor so different from all the other superheroes. But, Thor 2 overlooks such concerns and follows the much used to action-concentrated style. But, the question is: how does it fare in that aspect?

Quite well. The first half of the film is close to perfection—making a perfect blend of mystery, darkness and humor. The second half becomes somewhat ambiguous leaving several character motivations and plot-lines undeveloped.

 Perhaps the two most memorable and witty sequences in the movie are the London subway scene in which Thor is forced to take the subway (“Which way to Greenwich?”) and the hammer hanging scene where Thor hangs his mighty Mjölnir on a coat rack similar to an umbrella. Other supporting characters also add humorous scenes but their role only sums up to another form of comic relief without any real character development. The effect is less than desirable but in terms of the whole movie, the few extra laughs do make things more fun. Furthermore, unlike many other action/superhero movies in which the “girlfriend” is just another romantic tool, Thor: The Dark World gives Natalie Portman’s character—Jane Foster—an integral role in the story-line. This definitely improves the stakes and suspense of the film since she is susceptible to real damage.

However, the most common mistake that the second Thor movie falls into is building a plot-line on a simple and half-baked villain. But, then again, that isn't all too bad as long as it is balanced with other interesting sequences. In this case, the adjustment comes from one of the few complex characters in the film—Loki. His conflicted and often comic personality adds an exciting twist to the film. While Loki’s relationship with his “mother” is one of the more effective parts of the movie, his true colors finally appear at the end of the film when the audience is kept on the edge of the seat—wondering what follows.

The most recent outing of the demi-god, Thor, is neither worse nor better than its predecessor. It excels in a few aspects but disregards some of the underlying issues. While that doesn’t hinder the over-all experience of the film, it surely doesn’t make it any better. With great special effects from the spectacular scenes in Asgard and the refreshing direction from Alan Taylor (director of one of the best episodes from Game of Thrones), Thor: The Dark World offers a more than satisfying albeit not fulfilling 3D experience. 

Opinion and Analysis: Man of Steel 2 - Superman vs. Batman

UPDATE:The Caped Crusader role finally took a name--Ben Affleck.

This year’s San Diego Comic Con electrified the crowd when WB revealed that their upcoming Man of Steel sequel is in fact a Batman/Superman combo movie.  And surely, if you’re reading this article, this news shouldn’t be surprising. If the news still hasn’t struck you, then I guess it’s time to rejoice. At face value, the idea of a crossover definitely looks amazing—who wouldn’t want Batman and Superman in the same movie? But, then comes in Man of Steel—the film that everyone was anticipating. “The best superhero movie” they said. After the long wait and my high hopes, I finally hit the theaters. Unfortunately, I left the theater thinking maybe WB can fix it the next time around.

First off, I have to say that Man of Steel was not a bad movie but it wasn’t a great one either. The trailers fooled me into believing that it was going to be spectacular and perfect. The truth is it wasn’t perfect but it did have some good moments. It had the potential. Many critics and myself included found that the film suffered from a lack of build-up and character development. And the main cause of this trouble was the waste of screen-time on action. There are some moments were the fight and flight sequences are spectacular but at some point they became redundant and pointless. It as if WB had to insure Man of Steel’s success by adding more action and more action to make the odds of its failure lower. The conclusion it seems is that more action equals more money. So, to be on the safe side, they said: “heck why not add more.” I am not here to point fingers but the Zach Snyder and David S. Goyer duo are part of this problem. WB’s aim is quick cash and this is corroborated by their recent announcement of the Batman vs. Superman showdown.

Man of Steel’s legs in the box office were middling, losing much of its power quickly, mainly due to the material itself and the critical consensus. Prior to its release, the superman tentpole spurred so much hype but once it was released it quickly wavered. It is currently struggling to get past the $300 million barrier in North America. Looking past the big debut and the pre-release tracking, the final revenue is by far a success for any reboot/origin movie. What is more concerning is the holding power of the film which often tells a great deal about the success of the next film. In this case, the numbers didn't call out a huge success for Man of Steel 2. The only way WB could make loads of money is by once again increasing the anticipation and hype for its upcoming sequel—that way even if the film isn't of superior quality it will still make a lot of money.  How was that done? By bringing in the second most popular DC character or arguably the most popular DC superhero into Man of Steel 2. 

In consequence, the Superman vs. Batman film should garner a huge opening weekend. Big openings are the best way for film studios to profit since over the opening weekend word of mouth doesn't spread quickly and as a result there is almost nothing* that can impede a film’s gross. The days after its opening are important but are more susceptible to damage by critics, word of mouth, and competition—all of which are generally immutable. On the other hand, the opening 3-day gross can be controlled to some extent by the marketing and thereof the pre-release word of mouth.

The Avengers is a great example of how crucial marketing and word of mouth is in determining the final revenue of the film. Due to a heightened hype and positive reception, the Avenger’s staggering opening and holding power led to an impressive final gross of $623.4 million.(which was almost 3 times the opening weekend gross compared to Man of Steel's 2.3~2.5**.) What was even more astounding was its effect on Iron Man 3—which has yet to be tested on Thor: The Dark World. The crux is that more often than not good quality pays off more than superfluous measures—especially in the long run. It is yet to be seen if the upcoming Superman/Batman film can triumph both critically and financially. My opinion: the latter is more likely. 2015 is still a long way to go but it’s safe to say that Man of Steel 2 should easily out-gross its predecessor even with Ben Affleck as Batman.

*Except for the present competition. However, this can also sometimes  be managed by scheduling a film properly.
**2.3 including Thursday's numbers and 2.5 excluding.

'The Wolverine' Box Office Forecast and Predictions

Comic book movies have become increasingly popular and hitherto propitious.* The number of CB movies released over the years has proliferated, presumably reaching its maximum this year (2013) with a total of 4 superhero films being released. The special four include Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, The Wolverine, and Thor 2. The first two have been very successful with each grossing more than $600 million. The X-men series, however, hasn’t been very lucky. The highest-grossing movie in the franchise is X3: The Last Stand with $460 million worldwide. Subsequent prequels and spin-offs, such as X-Men: First Class and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, never reached the same levels. Although it may seem unfair to compare these movies to a finale (X3) or other comic-book movies, the evidence does suggest that interest in the X-Men series is nowhere close to that of Thor (released in 3D), Iron Man, or Man of Steel (also released in 3D). The bumpy road that the series has been facing is not really related to the material itself but Fox’s attempts at setting a franchise. Both their marketing strategies and management of the franchise are questionable and disorganized.  The absence of a buildup similar to the Avengers series is the main problem. Included in this absence is the illogical release of movies from the franchise. For example, both a prequel and spin-off were released a few years apart with no logical connection. Hopefully, the upcoming film will serve as connector and open new doors to other X-men films.

The Wolverine is another addition to the X-Men series as a sequel to the X-Men Origins: Wolverine. The first Wolverine (2009) spin-off grossed $179.9 million in North America and another $193.2 million in other countries while the prequel, First Class (2011), grossed $146.4 million in North America while making $207.2 million in international markets. It is important to mention that First Class didn’t cast the Wolverine—the most popular character in the X-men series—as a main character but only a cameo.  This might explain the decrease of the North American gross from the 2009 film and the 2011 or it could just be that the series is losing interest.

Another difference in the upcoming Wolverine movie and the previous one is the location which has been changed to Japan. This effort clearly signals an attempt at gaining a larger audience and higher grosses in Japan and Asia. These types of changes help the film’s international performance but often decrease its domestic performance. Therefore, coupled with franchise exhaust and audience fatigue, it is highly possible that The Wolverine will gross less than its predecessor in North America even though it has the extra push from 3D premiums. In non-north American markets, 3D still seems to pack a strong punch so it should give a rise in the film’s international revenue.

The promotion of the film has been modest. The total number of trailer views, 49,938,332, (based on Box Office Magazine data) is nothing exceptional, but is a great deal below recent comic-book movies such as Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel. It is, however, above recent action movie—Pacific Rim—which opened to an ordinary $40 million opening. The caveat worth nothing is that The Wolverine is running off a well-known and existing franchise which includes a large fanbase. So, a higher view count is nothing short of normal. On a qualitative side, the trailers portray a different type of movie and story—possibly one with more depth unlike the previous origin film. Evident in most trailers, the robot samurai fighting scene clearly recalls Thor's heartless warrior machine. The action-sequences are far away from that of the heavily action-driven Man of Steel but more towards those of Thor.
Expect,

North American Forecast: $157 million
Non-North American Forecast: $270 million**
Worldwide:  $427 million

*save for Green Lantern
**Including a Chinese release.

Man of Steel: Second Weekend Forecast

With the presence of newcomers--Monsters University and World War Z, Man of Steel will face some strong competition in its sophomore frame. Although the appealing demographic for Monsters University and World War Z do not directly overlap with that of Man of Steel, the new superman tentpole will still take a strong dip from its impressive debut last week.
Expected Range: $47-$54 million
Final projection: $47.3 million

Man of Steel: Opening Weekend Forecast

Projected Numbers:

Man of Steel's opening weekend range is at $118-$124 million. Considering others analysts projections, the range gets bigger with $75-$140 million. So, clearly there is loads of potential for Man of Steel to set many records. For more analysis, visit  'Man of Steel' Box Office Forecast and Predictions.

Final Opening Weekend Forecast: $124.6 million

'The Lone Ranger' Box Office Forecast

'The Lone Ranger' joins Gore Verbinski and Johnny Depp in another Western movie this July. Although Johnny Depp's track record is very well with movies, most notably with the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise and  Alice in Wonderland, The Lone Ranger's western style and middling trailer reception don't bode too well.

Recent western style movies such as Django Unchained, True Grit, and Cowboy and Aliens each grossed $162.8 million, $171.2 million, and $100.2 million respectively in North America. Both Django Unchained and True Grit were relatively well received while Django's performance was fueled mainly by Tarantino's impressive directorial effects and reputation. Therefore, it is safe to assume that 'The Lone Rangers' final North American gross should land between $100 and $170 million.

On the international front, each of the previously selected movies grossed $260 million, $79.9 million, and $74.6 million respectively. Clearly, Django Unchained rules this set and in fact is among one of the most successful Western-films in non-north American countries.  For Lone Ranger to pull of a $260 million internationally, it must have some strong interest (that may be found in Johnny Depp and the titular connection to the Lone Ranger comics) and should be well-received.  Rango's(another Western style movie directed by Verbinski and voiced by Depp) international revenue is comparatively low at only $121 million, albeit it was an animated film and didn't exactly have Johnny Depp's face but only his name and voice.

Expect,
North American Forecast: $127 million
Non-North American Forecast: $185 million
Worldwide: $312 million

'Man of Steel' Box Office Forecast and Predictions

Following Marvel’s incredible and unprecedented success with the launching of the Marvel universe (through individual characters and the team up—The Avengers), DC comics has been quite busy creating a strategic plan to kick start its own lucrative franchise. The foundation to this plan starts with Man of Steel—a reboot

to the popular Superman comic character. Both Superman and Batman are probably the most well-known characters of DC comics. Superman may even be more popular. The brand name of Superman (the “S”) is widespread; it’s found on shirts, copy books, and many other articles. Therefore, starting a new franchise would best be done by first introducing Superman. And this is very much the case.

The 2006 attempt—Superman Returns—at bringing back the Son of Krypton was a moderate success and in the eyes of Warner was a disappointment. In comparison to its high budget, the film was indeed a failure: only grossing $391 million worldwide with a $270 million budget. Several factors were the cause of its failure. One possible factor is the excessively long hiatus from the previous Superman film, which to be exact was more than 19 years. A lot of things can happen in 19 years—one of which is memory loss! The sequel to Christopher Reeve’s praised Superman would have surely lost audiences. Moreover, the idea of a 19 year later sequel is clearly not appealing; it may seem confusing to a few movie goers. So, any new fans were unlikely.

A modern reboot was the best option. News surrounding Man of Steel’s new approach to modern audiences has often been repeated. This same modernizing approach was used in Christopher Nolan’s Batman. The results were staggeringly well with both The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises. With Nolan’s addition to production, the same should be expected with Man of Steel. Several things have changed with the new reboot including the “S” and the Superman costume (similar to The Amazing Spider-Man). Although there have been changes to the superman symbol, it is still easily recognizable. All posters and trailers emphasize this symbol in order to attract hard-core superman fans and other “Superman knowers” (It is rather hard to find someone who hasn’t heard of Superman). The renovated symbol is a great way to set it apart from previous films but also establish itself as a Superman film.

The strong and aggressive marketing campaign that Warner Bros. has pulled off should pay off. For 2013 summer’s movies, Man of Steel’s trailers counts are only second to those of Iron Man 3. And recent reception of all trailers has been overwhelming positive with excellent action sequences and dramatic scenes. The ongoing theme of isolation (and the superman dream) is present in most of the trailers possibly to interest people of all ages. Charged by well-known stars, Man of Steel should easily do well in North America.

The most successful reboot to date is The Amazing Spider-Man which grossed globally $752 million. Considering it as a stand-alone movie that is impressive. However, it was a considerable decrease from Spider-Man 3’s $890 million. (Note that the Spider-Man reboot had the advantage of extra priced 3D tickets). Other reboots barely broke the 400 million barrier. For example, Batman Begins grossed $374 million with 55.7% of the total from North America. X-men: First Class also grossed noticeably lower than X-Men 3. Moreover, Zack Snyder’s recent failures with movies like The Legend of Guardians and Sucker Punch don’t add to well to the situation.

Superman Returns’ performance in the box office lowers any high expectations for Snyders’ Superman reboot. However, Man of Steel’s restored style and impressive action sequences clearly call for high blockbuster levels. The question of the billion dollar gross is rather difficult to answer. The numbers just point towards “NO.” In fact the percentage probability is at a low 20%. Although the numbers do present a difficulty films do have a way of surprising many analysts—one recent example is Skyfall. Expect,

North American Forecast: $315 million
Non-North American Forecast: $440 million
Worldwide: $755 million

Fast & Furious 6: Box Office Predictions

2011’s Fast Five renovated the Fast and Furious franchise and extended its brand name and audience beyond that of hard core fans only. This process was effectively done by focusing more on the plot line

rather than the cars. Nonetheless, the balance between the two was just right that it quenched hard core fans and interested the mainstream audience as well. Fast and Furious 6’s new location should be a good booster for the franchise by bringing in something new. Most sequels that do so often follow a propitious theatrical run.

Trailers of the film give a strong-based promotion for the film that once again not only focuses on the cars but the plot, the characters, and action sequences. The diversification of those elements plays a big role in attracting a larger audience.  An apt example at effective marketing is the addition of the Fast Six trailer to the Super Bowls whereby the demographic profile matches the target market (i.e. the advertising is targeted at audiences that favor both).

Accounting for the new “London” setting, a higher gross in the UK should be expected. And considering that the UK has a relatively high percentage in the international market; the film should easily maintain Fast Five’s foreign gross if not supersede it. Including the strong name that the franchise has cemented with its predecessor and the expanding international markets, the sixth installment is poised to gross more than $450 million internationally.

In North America, however, the movie schedule is rather crowded. But, Fast Six and Star Trek Into Darkness don’t have obvious and major overlaps in the general audience based on the genres and tones of the films.The more concerning opponent is Hangover Part III which also targets the same audience. Even with the competition, the latest movie in the car-action franchise should perform well in the box office. Expect,

North American Forecast: $219 million
International Forecast: $487 million
Worldwide: $706 million