Sunday, December 4, 2011

December 2011: Preview and Forecast

As the year comes to a close, the countdown for 2012 is almost over. Since 2011 was the most successful sequel-packed year—Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, Transformers 3, and Pirates of the Caribbean—it currently ranks as the 5th highest-grossing year with $9,406.4 million in the North American bank.  All of the movies listed above were highly successful grossing more than 1 billion dollars each worldwide. However, November also brought in a new sequel, Breaking Dawn: Part 1 which has already grossed over $604.3 million worldwide, with $259.5 million in North American markets and $344.8 million overseas. Although it is unlikely for it to gross above $1 billion, the second part will have better luck for avid Twilight fans. In December 2011, four movies—Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked, Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol, New Year's Eve, and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows—are coming to the cinemas each of which has a good potential to gross more than $100 million. 

1)      Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked:

After 2 films in the Alvin and the Chipmunks franchise, another sequel is hitting cinemas about the same time as its predecessors (4 years after the first movie in the franchise). The franchise has been successful over the years increasing 22.7% in worldwide revenue from the first and the second movie. If the same trend is followed, Alvin 3 is likely to gross around $543.6 million worldwide. Although it isn’t an all-time favorite by critics, it seems to appeal to families more than critics for the holidays. However, 'threequels' have had a though go lately and its unlikely that it gross anywhere near its predecessor. Worldwide forecast: $295 million

2)      Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol:
After a long break from Mission Impossible III of 5 years, MI4 is here. Franchise breaks seem to help sequels in their overall gross. Starting with the first MI, the series took off with a great start with $457.8 million worldwide. And then MI2 grossed even more both international markets and North American markets with $546.4 million—a $100 million more than its predecessor. However, in 2006, MI3 garnered a mere $397.9 million worldwide, which was a 27.2% decrease from MI2. Producers attempted to counteract these factors by bringing in renowned Pixar director Brad Bird and shooting around 30 min. of IMAX footage. Also, the inclusion of The Dark Knight Rises prologue on all IMAX prints should increase ticket sales. Worldwide forecast: $500 million

3)      New Year's Eve
Being the sequel to 2010’s Valentine’s Day, it seems very likely to gross somewhere around its predecessor. Although the character roles and names aren’t the same, the movie still revolves around a holiday (New Year’s Eve), but unlike Valentine’s Day it won’t be released on New Year’s Eve. However, both Valentine’s Day and New Year’s Eve are ensemble films that are based on a very particular romantic holiday, and both are directed by Garry Marshall. Valentine's Day debuted to a massive $56.3 million over in 2010, though it quickly faded away after Valentines and ended with $110.5 million in North America and $106.0 million. New Year's Eve opened to an underwhelming $5.080 million on Friday, which is off a huge 65 % from Valentine's Day's $14.5 million opening day. Flixter ratings are no better either—it holds a 62% approval rating from cinema goers and a horrible 6% rating from critics as of December 12, 2011. Worldwide forecast: $180 million

4)      Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Other than the penultimate Twilight movie, the biggest box-office hit this season is most likely to be Sherlock Holmes 2. In the shadow of Avatar, the first Sherlock Holmes earned a significant $209.0 million in US and Canadian markets and $315.0 million in international markets, for a grand total of $524.0 million. Another boost for the sequel is the portrayal of his most famous nemesis, Professor Moriarty. And a strong villain is known to enhance ticket sales and revenue as seen in The Dark Knight. Now that Avatar is out of the way, Holmes 2 has a better chance to gross big amounts. Nonetheless, sequels have had a tough go lately, so an enormous increase from its predecessor is not probable. Expect a notable increase in international grosses. Worldwide forecast: $495 million

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