Thursday, August 18, 2011

Weekend Predictions -- The Help Leads the Way, while other catch up.

Editors Note: Weekend predictions is a new article branch that wouldn't always be available, or shown online. Sometimes they will be available other times no. Don't expect continuous weekly weekend predictions.

None of the four newcomers hitting theaters this weekend will be able to dethrone The Help. With a a 93% approval rating from more than 16,000 Flixster users, The Help is poised to gross over $100 million. As of 4 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that The Help has 31% of daily sales. Expect it to gross over $21 million.

Lionsgate's Conan the Barbarian looks like the strongest newcomer. Fans of the Expendables, which made a massive hit last August, would be pleased by Conan the Barbarian but critics think other wise. Conan the Barbarian is outpacing The Expendables on Facebook, but it is behind on Twitter. Fandango is reporting that Conan the Barbarian has yet to crack the top five sellers list. Chances are online sales will pick up on Thursday as more Conan fans plan for the weekend.
Conan the Barbarian should manage $16-17 million from 3,105 location


Without any interesting news from Fandango.com concerning Spy Kids 4, look for All the Time in the World to grab $15.5 million from around 3,000 locations.

Fright Night will try to win some audience after the disparaged and besmirched reputation from Vampire Movies- Twilight saga. Males wouldn't be interested any more, but may catch some disturbia fans due to the similarities.There's no sign of Fright Night on the top ten daily sellers list on Fandango.
Fright Night aims at $14.8 million from around 2,900 locations.

Newcomer One day hasn't entered much spot light, starting with critics castigating its lack of  emotion, depth, or insight of its bestselling source material to little sales on Fandago. But there may still be hope as 82% on rotten tomatoes wish to see it. Expect it to gross $6.2 million.


 This week

TitleWeekend Gross  CHG %
The Help$21,100,000-19%
Rise of the Planet of the Apes$16,400,000-41%
Conan the Barbarian (2011)$15,900,000new
Spy Kids: All The Time In The World$15,500,000new
Fright Night (2011)$14,800,000new
The Smurfs$9,100,000-34%
Final Destination 5$8,250,000-55%
30 Minutes or Less$7,100,000-46%
One Day$6,200,000new
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II$4,800,000-37%
Crazy, Stupid, Love$4,500,000-36%

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

North American Box office Analysis

Even after high ticket pricing(3D), the total revenue of individual films remain low throughout recent years. With many new theaters and screens opening, film revenues are supposed to increase. Moreover, only 5 films in the past 6 years have passed the $400 million mark, and 2 of them benefited from 3D revenues and 4 of them were sequels. So whats happening?



The 5 films are Avatar(3D, 2009), The Dark Knight(2008), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest(2006), Toy Story 3(3D, 2010), and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen(2008). Only 2 of these films passed the $500 million mark, being Avatar and The Dark Knight, which grossed $760.5 million and $533.3 million respectively. Now, another film also passed the $500 million mark to be the 2nd highest grossing film of all-time in North America--Titanic--which is directed by Cameron along with Avatar. The Dark Knight, POC2, and TF2 were all sequels which were boosted by their previous recognition and renown.

Higher ticket-pricing along with greater theater numbers should lead to higher gross revenues but it still remains ineffectual. In 2011, the sequel packed year, no film was able to gross over $400 million, even the last Harry Potter film(3D), which broke many record including Biggest opening weekend($168.4 million). In North America, many people are fed up from 3D leading to only 43-60% of total grosses to be from 3D unlike Avatar's high percentage. Such drops won't put 3D in better light. 3D has lost its vibe due to the glasses, bad 3D conversions, and the darkness that comes with glasses. So even though there are many boosters what is the reason for the drops?



Throughout the years more and more films are being showed and made, which means there is a lot more competition. With more competition and films, comes the option of variety. This means that there are more choices of films to pick at the cinemas. Before, the choice was much less which would mean that more people what the same thing. Many sequels also bring more vicissitudes in to the cinematic market since usually they would have original buffs to depend on while newcomers suffer. But soon sequels would have to battle it off.

Sometimes the marketing also has a great effect on the success of the film, as seen with Super 8 and Green Lantern. Both of which didn't clearly illustrate the antagonist/problem in the story which resulted in bad results at the box office.

Often times the newcomers can be promoted by the industry(Marvel), novel, director, and actor As seen with comics(Thor, Iron Man, and Captain America), Harry Potter, Inception(Christopher Nolan), and Johnny Depp

Although there are many boosters, films still perform below expectations since with boosters come downers.

Edward Ghazaley


Tuesday, August 16, 2011

International Box-office--What in the Smurfs?

After 4 consecutive weeks of paramountcy in the international markets, Harry Potter was dethroned by the Smurfs. While others--Rise of the Planet of the Apes also put up mighty numbers, while Transformers: Dark of the Moon made another major feat on the all-time worldwide table.

Hitting No.1 spot, The Smurfs grossed an estimate $60 million from 44 countries, with a powerful opening from China--12.5 million. With a lot of competition, The Smurfs pulled in good numbers topped by the United Kingdom ($6.6 million), Russia ($4.5 million) and South Korea ($2.5 million). It also had strong holds in both Brazil ($5.3 million) and Germany ($4.6 million), dropping 25 and 28 percent, respectively. In only two weeks of opening, it has grossed $141 million overseas.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes grew to 39 markets and raked $39.8 million, with impressive starts in the United Kingdom ($9.65 million), France ($8.7 million) and Germany ($4.6 million). With a $74.4 million foreign total, Apes is set to expand to South Korea next weekend and Brazil and Mexico opening in the following week.

The last potter still has some life in it after 4 weeks, pulling in around $30 million from 61 markets to add up to a staggering 857.8 million internationally. Holding well in Japan, it escalated to $5.2 million due to Obon Holidays. On Sunday, Deathly Hallows - Part 2 became the second fastest film to reach the $1.2 billion mark(33 days) behind Avatar.

With disappointing results in the US, Green Lantern flew 405.714% to $14.2 million in 28 markets. It debuted in first place in Mexico with $4.3 million and also had a $3.1 million debut in Australia. The movie has now made a decent $61.6 million overseas, with expected openings in Brazil and Japan. It still remains below the production budget of $200 million, with only $176.6 million worldwide. By the end of its run, it should pass the $200 million mark to gross around $201.3 million. Although the film wasn't a financial success, Warner Bros. has put a sequel in production.

Cars 2
slowed 44 percent to $13.1 million for a $290 million total. It passed the first Cars late last week and has now made $476 million globally.


Transformers: Dark of the Moon
eased 41% to $12.5 million from 62 territories. It added $4.7 million in China to bring its total to a whopping $151.1 million.In Japan, it also slid just 5 percent to $4.6 million. After, Transformers passed Toy Story 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest to take fifth place on the all-time worldwide chart with $1.071 billion.

Other Notables - Weekend Gross - Gross-to-Date
Captain America: The First Avenger - $12.2 - $128.3
Super 8 - $9.5 - $94.5
Cowboy & Aliens - $7 - $7
Bridesmaids - $5.4 - $98.1
Horrible Bosses - $5.4 - $35
Mr. Popper's Penguins - $4.7 - $89.3
Zookeeper - $3.8 - $56.2
Bad Teacher - $3 - $94
Residual Leave (Resturlaub) - $2.7 - $2.7
Glee - $1.2 - $1.2
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $1 - $453




Sunday, August 14, 2011

Upcoming Releases and the Billion Dollar Club

2011 was a sequel-packed year full of finales and reboots, most notable are Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2. Both of which joined the billion dollars club. Pirates of the Caribbean 4 also reached that milestone, but occurred due to the international market, accounting for 77% of the total gross. Its the highest percentage for the foreign market in the billion dollar club. POC4's domestic revenue was the least in the whole franchise, although it was released in 3D. But in North America 3D has been fading away, with percentages decreasing. Nonetheless, the international market is very avid for 3D with many new 3D venues. The international Market has had a huge increase due to 3D, but ticket sales are much less since Titanic. A notable increase in revenues is China where it's gross has increased tremendously, starting with Avatar which grossed over $200 million in China. Another important escalation is in Taiwan where its Theater count has increased from 12-15 theaters to 66+ theaters. Transformers 3 raked in an incredible $25+ million from Taiwan, even higher than Avatars $13 million.

Currently, the international market is becoming more important than the domestic. Transformers 2 foreign gross was $434.2 million compared to Transformers 3's $724 million. Clearly there has been a huge difference from 2008 to 2011's foreign gross.

Upcoming Releases

Up to now, only 3 films joined the billion dollar club in 2011, all of which are sequels. Other potential films are Sherlock Holmes and MI4 3D, but they have a lower chance of reaching the billion dollar milestone as they are released a week apart and Sherlock Holmes is not in 3D. I say that's it, there aren't any other films that can reach the billion dollar milestone in 2011. Some say that Twilight - Part 1 is a potential billion dollar film, but its rather impossible for it to gross that high since its predecessors didn't even gross higher than $709 million. Furthermore, it isn't in 3D which wouldn't boost it's foreign gross, considering the fact that all recent films starting with Avatar (2009) to Transformers 3 (2011) are in 3D reached the billion dollar mark.

Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows - Part 2 total review

The finale of the renowned lucrative Harry Potter franchise came to an end on July 13/14 2011, as devoted fans waited for 10 years. Now, after 10 years of filming, the franchise is the highest grossing franchise in North America, in the foreign market, and worldwide--grossing over $2 billion in North America, and $7 billion worldwide. Its quite a feat, considering that such numbers rose from only 8 films--one of which is still playing at theaters. Currently, Deathly Hallows - Part 2 is the 3rd highest-grossing film of all-time worldwide and internationally. It stands behind Titanic and Avatar, both directed by James Cameron. Thus, making Harry Potter the HIGHEST-GROSSING non-Cameron film of all-time.

An action-packed, thrilling, and somewhat emotional ending for the famous Harry Potter franchise. The film was phenomenal but something was missing in it; it lacked a start and some parts of the film needed a touch of feeling from the score(an emotional one/action rising). Nonetheless, the film, shortest Harry Potter film, was well paced and had a satisfying ending.

It broke box office record both in North America and internationally, starting with opening weekend($169.2 million) domestically to Highest-grossing 2011 film($1.180 billion). It took a few records from The Dark Knight and Avatar, the most notable being Highest 3-day gross and Fastest to $900 million respectively. Although, it matched Avatar in the league of fastest to the billion dollar milestone(19 days), it didn't gross similar to it.

Its the first and last film in the series to be shown completely in 3D, albeit 3D didn't account to much of the domestic gross, only 43%, compared to other 2011 films like Transformers 3(60%). Nonetheless, it had a a good increase to revenue, but more of which came internationally where it grosses a massive $901 million, and staying number 1 in Japan for 4 weeks to gross $108 million.

Total Gross Prediction
As of August 24, 2011, Harry Potter has already grossed over $368 million domestically while grossing over $901 million internationally, for a total of $1.269 billion. Harry Potter biggest foreign market is none other  than the UK, grossing over $102 million as August 7, 2011. Deathly Hallows- Part 2 newly opened in China achieving the 3rd Highest-grossing opening weekend($29.7 million)in only 3 days.

Now for its final gross, it should gross around $382 million domestically and $1.00 billion internationally, for at total of $1.382 billion. Although its quite a stretch that it will be able to gross over $1 billion internationally, it should easily gross over $920 million. Domestically, its also hard to gross that much considering the competition but it should easily bring about over $370 million. It would be truly nice to see Harry Potter to be the 2nd Highest-grossing film, but the variation is insurmountable. But who knows,"nothing is impossible"

Edward Ghazaley
August 14, 2011

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