Friday, July 13, 2012

Forecast: Will the 'fourquel' have any luck?-Ice Age 4

The 3D animated PG rated film is back in another "Ice Age." The Ice Age franchise has seen a strong escalation in total revenue from the first Ice Age, which grossed $383 million worldwide, to the third Ice Age, which grossed $886 million. Now if that same rise applies to Ice Age 4, then it has a very high chance of passing the billion-dollar mark. However, Ice Age 3 was the first film in the franchise to be in 3D that enhanced the total revenue tremendously for the international market with $690 million (50% increase from Ice Age 2). The North American market, on the other hand, did not see a jump (0.006% increase from Ice Age 2, and 11% from Ice Age). It rarely happens that a fourth entry in a franchise experiences an increase. Shrek Forever After is an apt example of the situation, it ended its run with the lowest North American revenue in the franchise with $238.7 million .Therefore, Ice Age 4 will have no trouble grossing more than $150 million but anything more than $200 million is highly unlikely. This weekend does not seem to summon any new animated competitors but still Brave and Madagascar 3 are included in this weekend choice list for both parents and children.

Expect Ice Age: Continental Drift to take in $50.6 million this weekend.

Top three predictions for the July 13-15, 2012 weekend:
  1- Ice Age: Continental Drift - $49.6 million
        2-The Amazing Spider-Man - $31.4 million
        3- Ted (2012) - $22.1 million




Sunday, July 8, 2012

'The Amazing Spider-Man' scores $62 million over its opening weekend


The Amazing-Spider Man topped the box office, this post-holiday weekend, with a modest $62 million, at 4,318 locations. The film has now raked in $137.0 million over its six-day debut. 3D sales accounted for 44% of the weekend gross while IMAX contributed 10%. Last year, another movieTransformers: Dark of the Moonwas also promoted with high 3D effects similar to the Spider-man reboot, but it had a 60% 3D share. Yet, most films falls in the range of 40-50% notably Pirates 4, Cars 2, and Green Lantern. Therefore, 44% seems on par with other films.


In comparison to other Spider-Man films, Webb’s reboot ranks the lowest both in terms of opening weekend and in terms of six-day openings. Spider-Man, Spider-Man 2, and Spider-Man 3 pulled in $144.2 million, $180.1 million, and $176.2 million respectively over their six-day rollout. However, such a comparison isn't that simple as most of these films lived of the success of its predecessors. The only closest figure is Spider-Man’s $144 million six-day cume but then again the opening days were different. Even so, the 3D boost and 8-year inflation should have given the reboot a chance to shine but as most reboots presentthey never perform like the original. 


Transformers, which opened on the same day in 2007, grossed $70.6 million over its opening weekend for a cumulative six-day gross of $155.4 million. That is notably 14% higher than The Amazing Spider-Man’s six-day debut. Both films are the first in their franchise, yet the new Spider-Man pic still earned less. What is even more inauspicious is the fact that Webb’s superhero tentpole scored the highest-Tuesday gross but experienced very steep drops, over 30%, in the following days. It is possible that this does not bode well-hold ups in the coming weeks. However, Sony seems to be proud with the new Superhero’s numbers with one executive stating, “In the world of reboots, it’s pretty spectacular.”


And it’s true in the world of reboots, The Amazing Spider-Man does seem to net its way to the top. Other remarkable reboots of successful franchises include Batman Begins (2005), Superman Returns (2006), and X-Men: First Class (2011). Opening on a Wednesday in June 2005, Batman Begins earned $48.8 million over its opening weekend, which is significantly less than the new Spider-Man reboot even when adjusted to inflation. Similarly, both Superman Returns' opening of $52.5 million and X-Men: First Class’ $55.1 million fall short compared to The Amazing Spider-Man’s opening gross. Batman Begins (2005), Superman Returns (2006), and X-Men: First Class (2011) each eventually grossed $205.3 million, $200.1 million, and $146.4 million respectively. What seems even more interesting is how the sequel to Batman BeginsThe Dark Knight—became the third-highest grossing movie. As Columbia Pictures has already started the production of a sequel to the Spider-Man reboot, it portends good earnings for the upcoming sequel.

Although the Spider-Man brand has strong public appeal in North America, it will not be enough for The Amazing Spider-Man to rake in numbers similar to those of Rami’s films—Spider Man 1, 2, 3—each of which ultimately grossed more than $300 million. In North America, the film should make between $220-$270 million. Internationally, on the other hand, the movie is making strong debuts in much of Asia and already holds a $201.6 million haul.

North American Forecast: $257 million