Thursday, July 26, 2012

'The Dark Knight Rises': Second Weekend Forecast

After the senseless tragedy that struck Colorado, many would think that no one would go watch The Dark Knight Rises, or any film in fact, but as did the opening weekend results show—fans, although plunged in sadness, flocked to the theaters to watch the “epic conclusion.” Even with newcomers, The Watch and Step Up: Revolution, Nolan’s bat-finale will “rise” to the occasion and remain in the number 1 seat.

The Dark Knight Rises, amidst the mass shooting, raked in a record $160.9 million over its opening weekend, marking the biggest-opening weekend for a 2D film and the third biggest-debut just behind Deathly Hallows – Part 2’s $169.2 million opening. Although a record, the superhero tentpole's opening was notably less than the range given by analysts, which was around the $175-$215 million range. Therefore, the shooting definitely had its toll on the film with some analysts suggesting a $10-$20 diminution. Now, the question is to what extent will the misfortune, which shocked many people, effect the film’s second weekend gross?

In 2008, The Dark Knight garnered $158.4 million over its opening weekend and when adjusted to 2012’s ticket prices its 3-day gross of $174.7 million soars past that of the sequel. Therefore, ticket sales were clearly lower by a considerable amount. On its second weekend, The Dark Knight dropped 52.5% to $75.2 million. If that same trend is followed, then The Dark Knight Rises should earn $76.4 million. However, the comparison is not that simple as much of The Dark Knight Rises' opening weekend came from prepaid tickets and The Dark Knight didn't open in the same ambiance.  Both Monday and Tuesday grosses still illustrate interest in the movie from many eager buffs, despite the shooting, which may suggest a good hold-up for next week. In terms of 5-day total comparison, The Dark Knight Rises has grossed $198.04 million and is currently pacing 3 percent behind the $203.77 million five-day start of The Dark Knight.

As of July 26, 2012, The Dark Knight Rises holds a stellar 93% approval rating from Flixter’s audience and a great 86% fresh rating from 253 critics.  Despite the loss of some of its fandom and normal moviegoers, The Dark Knight Rises will have no trouble grossing more than $50 million in its sophomore frame from Batman aficionado rewatches and any word of mouth appealed newcomers.

Expect The Dark Knight Rises to gross $68.3 million over its second weekend run.

Second Weekend Forecast: $68.3 million

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