Saturday, June 30, 2012

The Amazing Spider Man: Opening Weekend Forecast

North American
Ten years ago, the first Spider-man movie shocked box-office observers by earning more than $100 million over its opening weekend—a record than no other film had accomplished at the time. Out of all films, the super-hero film prevailed and amassed a huge number of fans to earn $114.8 million during its debut. Now, that number would seem weak compared to The Avengers’ staggering $207.4 million debut. However, it should be made clear that Avengers was boosted with 3D higher ticket premiums and 10-year inflation. Even with adjusting to inflation, Spider Man’s opening is $156.6 million, which still falls short next to The Avengers. Either way, if the new reboot, The Amazing Spider-Man, grosses that much then a new franchise is a foregone conclusion.

Our “Spidey” superhero is set hit theaters on July 3, 2012 with an “untold story.” Columbia Pictures decided to reboot the whole franchise only 5 years after the last Spider Man movie—Spider Man 3. The new reboot, with a new name, is being marketed as “The Untold Story.” Columbia marketing techniques are trying to make this new reboot outstand compare to Spider Man. A notable attempt is changing the name of the reboot to “The Amazing Spider-Man.” Although taken from a comic book title, this only serves to create a new atmosphere for the reboot. Most of the previews confirm this by illustrating a new look—a darker look—at Spider Man’s life. Even Sony realized that the “untold story” facet of the campaign wouldn’t suffice so they changed their tagline to something more congruous with the title—“Prepare to be Amazed.” Several non-amazed critics, on the other hand, believe that the so-called reboot is but a replay of the original film—this may indeed be true but could also cause fans to dismiss the movie as a mere reiteration and reportrayal of the original. Currently, the film holds a decent 77% approval rating on rotten tomatoes.  Sony pictures should have anticipated such a consequence in the production of the reboot so soon.

In better light Facebook, likes have increased for The Amazing Spider Man, running at around 1.5 million likes, which suggests interest in the movie by many fans. Considering the fact that it has not been released yet, it stands well compared to the original 2002 Spider Man movie that has approximately 4.1 million likes. Even with all the other blockbusters this year, the Spider-man reboot has acquired more than 53 million views on almost all trailers. The Dark Knight Rises has attained 97 million views which is in part due to a renowned director (Nolan) and a well-established franchise. Regardless, all these signs suggest a good interest in the movie and one that may indeed grow next week. However, only one worrying note seems to be the problem; it may pull in good numbers over the opening weekend but in the long-run interest may fade away mainly because of The Dark Knight Rises (which is set to be released 17 days after the Amazing Spider Man) and the common plot points of the 2002 film. If the film does truly mirror the original then it will cause fans to retract and a final North American gross of anything above $250 million will be improbable.

A similar reboot-type film released in recent years is X-Men: First Class , but this film wasn’t haunted by claims of “seen it and done it”. X-Men First Class debuted to $55.1 million while the first X-Men opened to $54.5 million. Adjusted to inflation, however, the first X-Men opened to $80.1 million. As seen in many other cases, reboots never truly out-perform the original.

In order to give the Marc Webb's reboot as much time as possible to drain its money from fans before the release of The Dark Knight Rises, Columbia Pictures decided to release the film 3 days before the usual Friday which in this case means July 3, 2012. With 17 days until it faces The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider Man can make quick money. A similar situation happened to Spider Man 2 but instead of opening on Tuesday it opened on a Wednesday.Therefore, it is unlikely even with higher ticket pricing, because of both the 3D and inflation, that The Amazing Spider Man will gross more than $114 million over its opening weekend. Expect a decent but not outstanding $65.6 million opening.

North American Opening Weekend Forecast: $65.6 million
North American Three-Day Opening Forecast: $71.2 million
Opening Week Forecast: $136.8 million

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