It’s the time of the year again when major blockbusters start
blowing up records and out-doing most
First off, we will look at what made the Avengers an
incredible success. Marvel’s plans for its comic-to-movie process have
confounded many people. The crux of its success is attracting as many fans and
movie goers as possible. This was done by setting up three different movies
with different characters, genres, and tones. And all these three movies were
expected to end up interesting a larger demographic. And they did. The smart
and effective use of market segmentation helped make the Avengers the third
highest-grossing movie of all-time—a coveted seat by many film companies. So,
how does this play out with Iron Man 3?
The marketing effort for Iron Man 3 has been efficacious
which is exemplified by the view counts of many of the trailers and the
increase in Facebook likes. The possible reason to this is the change in tone
of the trailers (at least what is being advertised is). Previously, Iron Man 2
and Iron Man were far more lightweight and less serious. However, in Iron Man 3
trailers, the music, the images, are all different. The stakes are high, the
action is on a large-scale, and most-importantly the humanity of the hero is
being finally shown via his trepidation, his worries, his romantic interest,
and the score of the trailer. The trailers even are in some ways analogous to The
Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises—both in terms of the
villain and the more profound and solemn tone. In another smart way to attract
more people, the trailers also make a note about the Avengers (“New York”)—which
clearly tries to make Iron Man 3 seem like a sequel to The Avengers.
With a strong marketing effort, the only remaining aspect that is important is obviously the material itself. Most billion dollars films are well-received, so having some worthy direction and special effects play a big role in the films chances at attaining the billion dollar seat. Although we can’t generalize, it is suffice to say from the trailers that the film has some entertaining scenes both action wise and critical wise—that will unequivocally appeal to a larger audience. One drawback to the film’s North American box office performance is the scheduling. The month of May is packed with three major movies that have overlapping demographics. Though it may pose a problem, the grosses should eventually normalize but the spread may not be even. In addition, the probability of approximately equal grosses is highly unlikely therefore it seems that one of the films would suffer from the high competition.
Internationally, Iron Man 3 should experience a staggering
increase both due to the 3D and the positive reputation from the Avengers. Most
importantly, however, is the Chinese addition internationally. The inclusion of
Chinese production should notably increase its Chinese gross (not to mention
the fact that it is a booming country). Russia should also be a player in its international
cume. Thus, Iron Man 3 is expected to have a propitious rollout internationally.
Calculations put the Iron Man 3’s final worldwide gross at
$944 million with $371 million from North America and $573 million from
non-north American countries. The projections do not mean that film can’t reach
the billion dollar mark. Our range is between $850-$1,100 million with a 44%
chance that it can pass the billion dollar threshold.
Worldwide Forecast: $944 million (51.3% increase from Iron Man 2 and 61.3% increase from Iron Man)
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