'Man of Steel' Box Office Forecast and Predictions

Following Marvel’s incredible and unprecedented success with the launching of the Marvel universe (through individual characters and the team up—The Avengers), DC comics has been quite busy creating a strategic plan to kick start its own lucrative franchise. The foundation to this plan starts with Man of Steel—a reboot

to the popular Superman comic character. Both Superman and Batman are probably the most well-known characters of DC comics. Superman may even be more popular. The brand name of Superman (the “S”) is widespread; it’s found on shirts, copy books, and many other articles. Therefore, starting a new franchise would best be done by first introducing Superman. And this is very much the case.

The 2006 attempt—Superman Returns—at bringing back the Son of Krypton was a moderate success and in the eyes of Warner was a disappointment. In comparison to its high budget, the film was indeed a failure: only grossing $391 million worldwide with a $270 million budget. Several factors were the cause of its failure. One possible factor is the excessively long hiatus from the previous Superman film, which to be exact was more than 19 years. A lot of things can happen in 19 years—one of which is memory loss! The sequel to Christopher Reeve’s praised Superman would have surely lost audiences. Moreover, the idea of a 19 year later sequel is clearly not appealing; it may seem confusing to a few movie goers. So, any new fans were unlikely.

A modern reboot was the best option. News surrounding Man of Steel’s new approach to modern audiences has often been repeated. This same modernizing approach was used in Christopher Nolan’s Batman. The results were staggeringly well with both The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises. With Nolan’s addition to production, the same should be expected with Man of Steel. Several things have changed with the new reboot including the “S” and the Superman costume (similar to The Amazing Spider-Man). Although there have been changes to the superman symbol, it is still easily recognizable. All posters and trailers emphasize this symbol in order to attract hard-core superman fans and other “Superman knowers” (It is rather hard to find someone who hasn’t heard of Superman). The renovated symbol is a great way to set it apart from previous films but also establish itself as a Superman film.

The strong and aggressive marketing campaign that Warner Bros. has pulled off should pay off. For 2013 summer’s movies, Man of Steel’s trailers counts are only second to those of Iron Man 3. And recent reception of all trailers has been overwhelming positive with excellent action sequences and dramatic scenes. The ongoing theme of isolation (and the superman dream) is present in most of the trailers possibly to interest people of all ages. Charged by well-known stars, Man of Steel should easily do well in North America.

The most successful reboot to date is The Amazing Spider-Man which grossed globally $752 million. Considering it as a stand-alone movie that is impressive. However, it was a considerable decrease from Spider-Man 3’s $890 million. (Note that the Spider-Man reboot had the advantage of extra priced 3D tickets). Other reboots barely broke the 400 million barrier. For example, Batman Begins grossed $374 million with 55.7% of the total from North America. X-men: First Class also grossed noticeably lower than X-Men 3. Moreover, Zack Snyder’s recent failures with movies like The Legend of Guardians and Sucker Punch don’t add to well to the situation.

Superman Returns’ performance in the box office lowers any high expectations for Snyders’ Superman reboot. However, Man of Steel’s restored style and impressive action sequences clearly call for high blockbuster levels. The question of the billion dollar gross is rather difficult to answer. The numbers just point towards “NO.” In fact the percentage probability is at a low 20%. Although the numbers do present a difficulty films do have a way of surprising many analysts—one recent example is Skyfall. Expect,

North American Forecast: $315 million
Non-North American Forecast: $440 million
Worldwide: $755 million