Sunday, July 8, 2012

'The Amazing Spider-Man' scores $62 million over its opening weekend


The Amazing-Spider Man topped the box office, this post-holiday weekend, with a modest $62 million, at 4,318 locations. The film has now raked in $137.0 million over its six-day debut. 3D sales accounted for 44% of the weekend gross while IMAX contributed 10%. Last year, another movieTransformers: Dark of the Moonwas also promoted with high 3D effects similar to the Spider-man reboot, but it had a 60% 3D share. Yet, most films falls in the range of 40-50% notably Pirates 4, Cars 2, and Green Lantern. Therefore, 44% seems on par with other films.


In comparison to other Spider-Man films, Webb’s reboot ranks the lowest both in terms of opening weekend and in terms of six-day openings. Spider-Man, Spider-Man 2, and Spider-Man 3 pulled in $144.2 million, $180.1 million, and $176.2 million respectively over their six-day rollout. However, such a comparison isn't that simple as most of these films lived of the success of its predecessors. The only closest figure is Spider-Man’s $144 million six-day cume but then again the opening days were different. Even so, the 3D boost and 8-year inflation should have given the reboot a chance to shine but as most reboots presentthey never perform like the original. 


Transformers, which opened on the same day in 2007, grossed $70.6 million over its opening weekend for a cumulative six-day gross of $155.4 million. That is notably 14% higher than The Amazing Spider-Man’s six-day debut. Both films are the first in their franchise, yet the new Spider-Man pic still earned less. What is even more inauspicious is the fact that Webb’s superhero tentpole scored the highest-Tuesday gross but experienced very steep drops, over 30%, in the following days. It is possible that this does not bode well-hold ups in the coming weeks. However, Sony seems to be proud with the new Superhero’s numbers with one executive stating, “In the world of reboots, it’s pretty spectacular.”


And it’s true in the world of reboots, The Amazing Spider-Man does seem to net its way to the top. Other remarkable reboots of successful franchises include Batman Begins (2005), Superman Returns (2006), and X-Men: First Class (2011). Opening on a Wednesday in June 2005, Batman Begins earned $48.8 million over its opening weekend, which is significantly less than the new Spider-Man reboot even when adjusted to inflation. Similarly, both Superman Returns' opening of $52.5 million and X-Men: First Class’ $55.1 million fall short compared to The Amazing Spider-Man’s opening gross. Batman Begins (2005), Superman Returns (2006), and X-Men: First Class (2011) each eventually grossed $205.3 million, $200.1 million, and $146.4 million respectively. What seems even more interesting is how the sequel to Batman BeginsThe Dark Knight—became the third-highest grossing movie. As Columbia Pictures has already started the production of a sequel to the Spider-Man reboot, it portends good earnings for the upcoming sequel.

Although the Spider-Man brand has strong public appeal in North America, it will not be enough for The Amazing Spider-Man to rake in numbers similar to those of Rami’s films—Spider Man 1, 2, 3—each of which ultimately grossed more than $300 million. In North America, the film should make between $220-$270 million. Internationally, on the other hand, the movie is making strong debuts in much of Asia and already holds a $201.6 million haul.

North American Forecast: $257 million

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

'The Amazing Spider Man': Earns the Biggest Tuesday Gross


Current estimates by Sony place The Amazing Spider-Man's Tuesday earnings close to $35 million, surpassing Transformers’ $27.9 million gross to become the highest-grossing Tuesday opener. Although a record breaker, The Amazing Spider-Man did not have much competition in breaking this record as very few films of the same blockbuster level open on Tuesdays. The only other notable Tuesday-opener is Micheal Bay's Transformers, which opened in 2007—adjusting to both inflation and 3D premiums Transformers' opening will mount to somewhere around $35 million.

From 4,011 locations, Transformers eventually grossed $155.4 million in its Tuesday to Sunday run. Webb's reboot earned $7.5 million in its midnight showings, which is slightly less, than Transformers’ $8.8 million ($10.1 million, adjust. to infl.). With this trend, The Amazing Spider-Man can easily gross $166.1 million. However, the fact that some critics are panning it for being a derivative of the original Spider-Man film does not put the new Spider-Man in a better situation. At Flixter, 84% of the audience is fond of the movie, which counters the negative reviews from quite a few critics. Ultimately, the success of the film is contingent on the audience's opinion not that of the critics. Expect $143.0 million  for the films six-day debut. 


*News suggests that the success of the film has led way to a trilogy so a new Spider-Man franchise is not far away.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

The Amazing Spider Man: International Forecast

Non-North American (International)

In the previous Spider-Man franchise, international earnings were always great; increasing from the first film to the last by over 32.6%. Spider Man 3 grossed $554.3 million, the highest international earning in all the franchise, while Spider Man grossed $418.0 million. It is clear that the Spider-Man franchise has strong market-holds in many international territories.

From 2007 to 2012, many non-North American markets would have grown, notably Chinaa flourishing territory in box office revenuesRussia, and Brazil. The Amazing Spider-Man should have no trouble earning more than $250 million internationally, considering the fact that it even has a 3D punch. All the previous Spider Man movies were released in 2D and at a time where IMAX theaters were not in huge numbers and less prevalent. Now, there are more than 580 IMAX venues internationally.

In 13 international markets, The Amazing Spider-Man opened on June 28-30, garnering a strong $50.2 million. The new reboot has already surpassed the opening of The Avengers in two countriesKorea where the new 3D reboot debuted to $13 million which is $3 million more than the opening of The Avengers, and India where it opened to  $6 million which is the biggest-opening for an American film. In Korea and India, The Avengers went on to gross more than $50 million and $13 million respectively. With these revenues, Webb's reboot.is on a propitious start.


Final International Forecast: $540 million

Saturday, June 30, 2012

The Amazing Spider Man: Opening Weekend Forecast


North American
Ten years ago, the first Spider-man movie shocked box-office observers by earning more than $100 million over its opening weekend—a record than no other film had accomplished at the time. Out of all films, the super-hero film prevailed and amassed a huge number of fans to earn $114.8 million during its debut. Now, that number would seem weak compared to The Avengers’ staggering $207.4 million debut. However, it should be made clear that Avengers was boosted with 3D higher ticket premiums and 10-year inflation. Even with adjusting to inflation, Spider Man’s opening is $156.6 million, which still falls short next to The Avengers. Either way, if the new reboot, The Amazing Spider-Man, grosses that much then a new franchise is a foregone conclusion.

Our “Spidey” superhero is set hit theaters on July 3, 2012 with an “untold story.” Columbia Pictures decided to reboot the whole franchise only 5 years after the last Spider Man movie—Spider Man 3. The new reboot, with a new name, is being marketed as “The Untold Story.” Columbia marketing techniques are trying to make this new reboot outstand compare to Spider Man. A notable attempt is changing the name of the reboot to “The Amazing Spider-Man.” Although taken from a comic book title, this only serves to create a new atmosphere for the reboot. Most of the previews confirm this by illustrating a new look—a darker look—at Spider Man’s life. Even Sony realized that the “untold story” facet of the campaign wouldn’t suffice so they changed their tagline to something more congruous with the title—“Prepare to be Amazed.” Several non-amazed critics, on the other hand, believe that the so-called reboot is but a replay of the original film—this may indeed be true but could also cause fans to dismiss the movie as a mere reiteration and reportrayal of the original. Currently, the film holds a decent 77% approval rating on rotten tomatoes.  Sony pictures should have anticipated such a consequence in the production of the reboot so soon.

In better light Facebook, likes have increased for The Amazing Spider Man, running at around 1.5 million likes, which suggests interest in the movie by many fans. Considering the fact that it has not been released yet, it stands well compared to the original 2002 Spider Man movie that has approximately 4.1 million likes. Even with all the other blockbusters this year, the Spider-man reboot has acquired more than 53 million views on almost all trailers. The Dark Knight Rises has attained 97 million views which is in part due to a renowned director (Nolan) and a well-established franchise. Regardless, all these signs suggest a good interest in the movie and one that may indeed grow next week. However, only one worrying note seems to be the problem; it may pull in good numbers over the opening weekend but in the long-run interest may fade away mainly because of The Dark Knight Rises (which is set to be released 17 days after the Amazing Spider Man) and the common plot points of the 2002 film. If the film does truly mirror the original then it will cause fans to retract and a final North American gross of anything above $250 million will be improbable.

A similar reboot-type film released in recent years is X-Men: First Class , but this film wasn’t haunted by claims of “seen it and done it”. X-Men First Class debuted to $55.1 million while the first X-Men opened to $54.5 million. Adjusted to inflation, however, the first X-Men opened to $80.1 million. As seen in many other cases, reboots never truly out-perform the original.

In order to give the Marc Webb's reboot as much time as possible to drain its money from fans before the release of The Dark Knight Rises, Columbia Pictures decided to release the film 3 days before the usual Friday which in this case means July 3, 2012. With 17 days until it faces The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider Man can make quick money. A similar situation happened to Spider Man 2 but instead of opening on Tuesday it opened on a Wednesday.Therefore, it is unlikely even with higher ticket pricing, because of both the 3D and inflation, that The Amazing Spider Man will gross more than $114 million over its opening weekend. Expect a decent but not outstanding $65.6 million opening.

North American Opening Weekend Forecast: $65.6 million
North American Three-Day Opening Forecast: $71.2 million
Opening Week Forecast: $136.8 million

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

The Amazing Spider-Man: Box-Office expectations and forecast

Will the latest spider-man reboot live up to its predecessors?
Coming Soon

Sunday, May 20, 2012

The Avengers once again rules the international box office and North American

In its third-weekend roll-out, The Avengers once again pulled in great numbers that kept it in the #1 seat for the third week straight. With two newcomers--Battleship and The Dictator--, the superhero juggernaut earned an estimated $55.1 million over its third weekend, marking the second-highest third weekend gross right behind Avatar which earned $68.5 million back in December 2009. From last weekend record breaking $103.1 million, the pic dropped a decent 46.6% which stands well compared to other superhero titles--Iron Man 2(49.3%), and Thor (55.5%). However, both The Dark Knight's and Spider-man's third-weekend drops were less with 43.2% and 36.9% respectively. However, with its $55.1 million The Avengers domestic cume now stands at a staggering $457.1 million which is the 6th highest gross of all time domestically;right behind Star Wars. What is more interesting is the celerity with which the film reached the $450 million threshold; a record 17 days which surpasses The Dark Knight's 27 day record by a significant 10 day difference. A North American gross above $540 million is guaranteed for Marvel's highest-grossing film of all-time--The Avengers.

Internationally, The Avengers also amassed a powerful $56.0 million from 54 territories(95% of int. market) which is a decent drop of 32.5% from last weekend's $93.8 million. The Avengers international haul is now at $723.3 million which is the #7 highest-grossing film of all time internationally. In Latin America, the superhero tent-pole has already earned $171 million, overcoming the total revenue of Avatar and Titanic to become the highest grossing film of all-time in that territory. With this much energy in overseas markets, The Avengers will have no problem passing the $800 million threshold and possibly the $900 million when it is released in Japan. Summing up both domestic and international numbers, The Avengers now has $1.180 billion globally--the 4th highest-grossing film of all time globally.

List of Records Set by The Avengers:
1. Biggest Opening Weekend ($207.8 million)
2. Biggest Opening Saturday and Sunday
3. Fastest Movie to reach $100, $200, $300, $400, $450 million
4. Highest 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th day gross.
5. Biggest second weekend of all time ($103.1 million)
6. Highest Grossing Disney film of all-time both globally and domestically
7. ...

Believe it or not, there were other films at the box office. However, The Avengers superhero power smashed any newcomers. Battleship debuted to a flaccid $25.3 million which is really off the anticipated $35-40 million range. At this stage, Battleship doesn't seem to have the power to pass the $70 million in the long run. Universal's so called new "Transformers franchise" didn't sum up to anything and opened less than John Carter, another box office flop that cost Disney many losses. However, international figures are better with $215.3 million which compensates for the production budget of $209 million.(excluding marketing costs and any other miscellaneous costs.)

The Dictator, an R rated film, also opened to an underwhelming $17.4 million that is no where close to other films of the same genre.

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Updated: The Avengers Third Weekend Predictions

The Avengers' record streak is about to end as its third weekend gross falls below that of Avatar. Although  it is going to lose that record, it still has many other records to look for namely fastest film to $450 million and $500 million. In 2009, Avatar was huge hit and indeed an exceptional film, for that reason it isn't fair to compare The Avengers to Avatar. Moreover, the release date of Avatar and The Avengers was different; Avatar was released in December 2009 while Avengers was released in May 2012. Earning an approximate $15.308 million on Friday, The Avengers domestic cume is now $417 million, marking the highest-grossing film for Disney.

With $417 million in only 15 days, the box office juggernaut will remain in the #1 seat with a staggering $56.8 million, ranking as the second-highest third weekend gross.

Internationally, The Avengers raked an estimated $13.9 million on Friday placing its non-north american haul at $682.6 million and globally at $1.099 billion--6th highest grossing film of all-time. By Sunday, the superhero ensemble should become the 4th highest-grossing film of all-time globally.

Battleship, is expected to open to an underwhelming $27.6 million, due to a below par midnight gross and an estimated $9.5 million on Friday. With an opening of $27.6 million, Battleship will be lucky to earn more than $100 million as its final domestic revenue. Although domestic numbers aren't too good, Battleship has a solid international cume of $220 million covering a outlandish production budget of $209 million(not inclusive of marketing costs). Universal will suffer a slight blow, but not as bad as that which Disney experienced with John Carter. Luckily, The Avengers was there to save the day.


Saturday, May 12, 2012

Friday Report: The Avengers grosses $29.124 million on Friday, Dark Shadows underperforms

With $29.124 million in the bank on Friday, The Avengers is on track to dethrone Avatar's record of biggest-second weekend gross of $75.6 million. Obliterating the $200 million barrier in only 3 days , The Avengers is going to break another barrier and garner a smashing $102.8 million over its second weekend, making it the first and only movie to earn that much. By Sunday, the superhero ensemble movie would have broken another 2 records, namely fastest film to $300 million and fastest film to $350 million accomplishing each in a mere 8(9*) days and 10 days respectively.

The Avengers' $29.124 million Friday compares well to other superhero movies and big-box office hits. In 2008, The Dark Knight grossed $23.3 million on its second Friday, but those numbers weren't boosted by 3D premiums. The movie's second Friday is even 26% more than that of Avatar(3D) which ultimately grossed $750 million in North America. The superhero tentpole's 8-day cume is 14% ahead of The Dark Knight's $261.8 million, and 70% ahead of Iron Man 2's $159.2 million

Look for the The Avengers to stay at #1 spot again with $102.8 million which that by itself stands as the 18th highest-opening weekend.

Internationally, the Avengers has pulled in decent numbers on Friday with $21 million, placing its international haul at $555.2 million. As of now, the worldwide revenue is $854.3 million. The Avengers has already become the highest-grossing superhero title of all time internationally.

Final Domestic Forecast: $579.3 million
Final Worldwide Forecast: $1.34 billion

*As Friday's gross is an estimate, there is room for error so a higher/lower Friday gross is possible. Actual grosses will be revealed on Monday.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

The Avengers Second Weekend Projections (Updated)

With the Dark Shadows opening this week at an approximate 3,700 places, The Avengers should be drastically affected considering the fact that such films suffer a steep drop the following week. However, the superhero tentpole still has enough firepower in it to stay in the #1 seat with a predicted $90+ million. The Avengers should break the record of biggest-second weekend gross and surpass Avatar's $75.6 million over its second weekend.

Breaking records each day, The Avengers also boasts a powerful A+ Cinema Score and 96% on Flixer ratings. Not only is the word of mouth good among fans, but also among critics who are lauding Mark Ruffalo's depictive acting techniques. Standing as the 32nd highest-grossing film of all time in only 17 days with $803.3 million, the ensemble movie will most certainly pass the $1 billion dollar threshold. Currently, The Avengers accounts for 84% of daily sales portending a really good hold-up for this week.

Expect the Avengers to shatter everything again with a second-weekend gross of $105.8 million, a drop of 49.1%.

The Dark Shadows will suffer The Avengers' "smashing" power, and open to a decent $32 million.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

The Avengers smashes opening records

The Avengers amassed  a staggering $200.3 million over its opening weekend, obliterating Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2's previous record of $169.2 million by a large margin...