Box Office News and Forecast: 'The Last Stand,' 'Zero Dark Thirty,' 'Hansel And Gretel Witch Hunters,' and 'Beautiful Creatures'

Movie distributors do not release any blockbuster movies in January and February, so one rarely sees any $600M+ movies in those months. Following March, however, the heat starts and major movies hit the cinemas.

1)      The Last Stand (17 Jan, 2013)

Arnold Schwarzenegger returns in another R-rated action movie. With a low budget of $30 million, anything above $40 million domestically would make the film a success. But, Arnold’s star power has diminished over the years.  Arnold's expanded role in The Expendables 2 didn't seem to make a difference in the film's box office performance. A final worldwide gross above $100M would be surprising, expect $66 million globally.

Synopsis: Sheriff Owens is a man who has resigned himself to a life of fighting what little crime takes place in sleepy border town Sommerton Junction after leaving his LAPD post following a bungled operation that left him wracked with failure and defeat after his partner was crippled. After a spectacular escape from an FBI prisoner convoy…

2)      Zero Dark Thirty (24 Jan, 2013)

The popularity that the film has gained from its current Oscar nomination must help its box office performance. With an excellent critical rating of 94%, the film is in a good position to gross more than $40 million in North America. Look for a final global revenue close to $160 million.

Synopsis: For a decade, an elite team of intelligence and military operatives, working in secret across the globe, devoted themselves to a single goal: to find and eliminate Osama bin Laden. Zero Dark Thirty reunites the Oscar winning team of director-producer Kathryn Bigelow and writer-producer Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker) for the story of history's greatest manhunt for the world's most dangerous man.

3)      Gangster Squad (24 Jan, 2013)

Originally set to play in September 2012, Fliescher’s crime movie was bumped to January due to the Aurora shooting of 2012.  In North America and Lebanon, Gangster Squad is playing against Zero Dark Thirty. So, there is going to be some competition considering the fact that they are both action movies. Current predictions place Zero Dark Thirty ahead of Gangster Squad for its opening weekend. Unlike its opponent, the crime thriller has a negative reception with 34% on RottenTomatoes. However, Gangster Squad’s better known cast, most notably Emma Stone—a rising actress in Hollywood—makes it a formidable opponent.

Synopsis: Los Angeles, 1949. Ruthless, Brooklyn-born mob king Mickey Cohen (Sean Penn) runs the show in this town, reaping the ill-gotten gains from the drugs, the guns, the prostitutes and-if he has his way-every wire bet placed west of Chicago. And he does it all with the protection of not only his own paid goons, but also the police and the politicians who are under his control. It's enough to intimidate even the bravest, street-hardened cop...except, perhaps, for the small, secret crew of LAPD 

4)      Hansel And Gretel Witch Hunters (31 Jan, 2013)

Over the past few years, directors and screenplay writers have been exhuming the old stories and adding “new twists” to them. Alice in Wonderland, Snow White and the Huntsman, and Once Upon a Time (recent TV show) exemplify the recent interest in tales of the past. Hansel And Gretel Witch Hunters is yet another film that can be added to the list. It features Oscar nominated Jeremy Renner who has played in many well-known movies. Unlike the recent children-book based films, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters changes the whole story to a horror genre but keeps the rating PG-13. Such changes may have negative implications and positive ones. However, one thing is certain; it will not be amassing anything above $350 million. Although budget does not always determine final grosses, it still helps in pointing out how much the film should gross. In this case, a budget multiplier greater than 1.8 should seem profitable.   Expect a final worldwide cume of $146 million.

Synopsis: After getting a taste for blood as children, Hansel (Jeremy Renner) and Gretel (Gemma Arterton) have become the ultimate vigilantes, hell bent on retribution. Now, unbeknownst to them, Hansel and Gretel have become the hunted, and must face an evil far greater than witches...their past

5)      A Good Day To Die Hard (14 Feb, 2013)

The only sequel in our movie bunch for this month’s edition is the fifth installment of the Die Hard film series.  The franchise has experienced a dwindling increase rate from each sequel. In 2007, Die Hard 4 raked in $383 million globally. Unlike its precedent, Die Hard 5 is R-rated so a smaller audience and fewer admissions are expected.  In North America, the projected revenue is at $128 million—a notable decrease considering inflation. Nonetheless, the expanding international market and the short hiatus may help the film’s international gross. Expect A Good Day To Die Hard to make $329 million worldwide on the high end.

Synopsis: When John McClane's son Jack gets into trouble while in Russia, McClane travels to Moscow to help him out, only to get caught up in a terrorist plot involving the circumstances behind his son's arrest.

6)      Beautiful Creatures (14 Feb, 2013)

At face value, it may look like another Twilight movie or Adams family, but this movie seems to have a good story backing it up. The major problem with book-based films is how the director or the screenwriter is going to adapt it: should they deviate from the main story? Or should they stick to what the mainstream audience liked? Sometimes in adapting, similar to translating, there are changes most of which are necessary to make it movie worthy. Two similar movies are I Am Number Four (32% rotten tomatoes) and The Seeker. (14% rotten tomatoes)  Each of which took in $146 million and $31.4 million respectively.  For such movies, however, critical reception played a major role. I am assuming the film will have a critical reception close to positive. In which case, it should gross $217 million, which is on par with The Lightning Thief. On the low end of the range, it is poised to gross $115 million. 

Synopsis: A young man is drawn to a mysterious young girl who moves to his small town and stumbles on a crypt of her family secrets in this adaptation of Kami Carcia and Margaret Stohl's series of novels.

Weekend Report: 'The Dark Knight Rises' stays atop with $62.1 million

After Friday’s Olympics opening ceremony and last week’s mass shooting, moviegoers returned to theaters, keeping The Dark Knight Rises’ on the top but left The Watch and Step Up Revolution in the dark. Because of the Olympics' opening on Friday, Saturday’s numbers were up for most films but the new Batman film had a strong 39.3% jump from Friday-to-Saturday, reinforcing its superhero status.

In its second weekend run, The Dark Knight Rises remained the top-winner of the weekend with an estimated $62.1 million that places its domestic haul at a great $287.1 million—the third highest 10-day gross. IMAX accounted for 14.5 percent of the weekend revenue which is higher than the 11.8 percent of its opening weekend. Even with a healthy second weekend, the superhero tentpole is still pacing behind its predecessor by a considerable 9 percent.  On its second weekend, The Dark Knight dropped 52.5 percent while Nolan’s bat-finale dropped 60.2 percent.  Recent polls and statistics suggested that 20%-25% of moviegoers are still hesitant to go to the theater. Assuming there is a direct proportionality to box office revenues, if 20% of The Dark Knight’s 2012-adjusted second weekend gross were removed, the film still passes the finale by more than 6.8 percent. Although the shooting and Olympic Ceremony has had its toll on The Dark Knight Rises, the film itself seems to be the problem; it seems to lack what its predecessor had. Even several critics conclude that although it may still shine as a film, it never meets the high standard set by its predecessor. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the film will reach or pass its predecessors record breaking final domestic gross of $533.3 million. Expect a North American gross of $430-450 million.

In comparison to another finale, The Dark Knight Rises second weekend drop is below that of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 (72.0 percent) which eventually grossed more than $375 million domestically. The Avengers, which was released earlier this year, broke many records, including opening weekend and second weekend records. The ensemble superhero film scored a record shattering $103.1 million second weekend gross and experienced a relatively good drop of 50.7 percent.

Unlike its domestic run, The Dark Knight Rises is doing great business overseas where it has already garnered $248.2 million, most of which is just less than 60% of the international market. Summing its domestic and international numbers, The Dark Knight Rises currently holds a powerful $537.3 cume. With this much enthusiasm both internationally and domestically, The Dark Knight Rises should easily pass the $1 billion mark sometime in the next 2 weeks.

Newcomers The Watch and Step Up: Revolution were easily fended off. The Watch, an ensemble comedy, opened to a flaccid $13.0 million, which is once again a disappointment for Ben Stiller. Tower Heist is another Ben Stiller comedy that failed this year. Compared to other R-rated comedies, The Watch loses most of its sight. For example, Ted, a month ago, opened to an incredible $54.4 million and has hitherto grossed $194 million, which is currently the fourth highest-grossing film for an R-rated comedy and the 11^th highest-grossing film for a R-rated film.

Step Up: Revolution, the fourth installment in the Summits’ dance club franchise—Step Up, grossed an underwhelming $11.8 million, which is 25.3 percent less than the $15.8 million debut of Step Up 3D. Its opening is also lower than all the other Step Up movies: Step Up opened to $20.7 million and Step Up 2 debuted to $18.9 million. Clearly, movie-goers, in this case mostly females, have lost interest in the dance moves of the Step Up franchise. With such an opening, Step Up 4 should become the lowest-grossing film in the Step Up franchise with anything around $32.5 million. Internationally, Step Up 3D grossed a decent $116.9 million  and now its only chance at success is if it grosses anywhere above $100 million.

                                                                                                                                 

'The Dark Knight Rises': Second Weekend Forecast

After the senseless tragedy that struck Colorado, many would think that no one would go watch The Dark Knight Rises, or any film in fact, but as did the opening weekend results show—fans, although plunged in sadness, flocked to the theaters to watch the “epic conclusion.” Even with newcomers, The Watch and Step Up: Revolution, Nolan’s bat-finale will “rise” to the occasion and remain in the number 1 seat.

The Dark Knight Rises, amidst the mass shooting, raked in a record $160.9 million over its opening weekend, marking the biggest-opening weekend for a 2D film and the third biggest-debut just behind Deathly Hallows – Part 2’s $169.2 million opening. Although a record, the superhero tentpole's opening was notably less than the range given by analysts, which was around the $175-$215 million range. Therefore, the shooting definitely had its toll on the film with some analysts suggesting a $10-$20 diminution. Now, the question is to what extent will the misfortune, which shocked many people, effect the film’s second weekend gross?

In 2008, The Dark Knight garnered $158.4 million over its opening weekend and when adjusted to 2012’s ticket prices its 3-day gross of $174.7 million soars past that of the sequel. Therefore, ticket sales were clearly lower by a considerable amount. On its second weekend, The Dark Knight dropped 52.5% to $75.2 million. If that same trend is followed, then The Dark Knight Rises should earn $76.4 million. However, the comparison is not that simple as much of The Dark Knight Rises' opening weekend came from prepaid tickets and The Dark Knight didn't open in the same ambiance.  Both Monday and Tuesday grosses still illustrate interest in the movie from many eager buffs, despite the shooting, which may suggest a good hold-up for next week. In terms of 5-day total comparison, The Dark Knight Rises has grossed $198.04 million and is currently pacing 3 percent behind the $203.77 million five-day start of The Dark Knight.

As of July 26, 2012, The Dark Knight Rises holds a stellar 93% approval rating from Flixter’s audience and a great 86% fresh rating from 253 critics.  Despite the loss of some of its fandom and normal moviegoers, The Dark Knight Rises will have no trouble grossing more than $50 million in its sophomore frame from Batman aficionado rewatches and any word of mouth appealed newcomers.

Expect The Dark Knight Rises to gross $68.3 million over its second weekend run.

Second Weekend Forecast: $68.3 million

The Dark Knight Rises: Weekend Forecast—Let the battle begin: The Avengers vs. The Dark Knight Rises

In 2005, Warner Bros. rebooted the Batman franchise with Christopher Nolan as director. The first installment in the Nolan-Bat trilogy—Batman Begins—opened to a mediocre $72.9 million over its 5-day opening. However, the film went on to gross $205.3 million; it was not close to Marvel’s Spider-Man but it still ignited the start of DC comics' superheroes again. The year after, DC and WB released Superman Returns, an alternate sequel to original Superman film series; it eventually scored a higher gross than Batman Begins, but was still a disappointment in the eyes of Warner Bros. In 2008, the Bat sequel finally hit theaters on July 18 and broke the record of highest-opening weekend with $158.4 million. It astonished many people including Warner Bros. and reinforced the fact that DC comics still had hard-core fans and was prominent throughout North America.  On top of a staggering opening weekend, The Dark Knight went on to become the second-highest grossing film just behind Titanic with $533.3 million. Soon enough Marvel’s The Avengers grabbed most of its records and became a formidable opponent for the finale of Nolan’s Batman trilogy—one of the most anticipated films of 2012. What makes The Avengers a worthy opponent is its ostensibly insurmountable $207.4 million debut. However, it had the advantage of 3D premiums that boosted its opening weekend with $35 million. Equivalently, The Dark Knight Rises has the advantage of IMAX, but the question is: Will it be good enough?

In the last decade, many finales have been greatly successful. The three most notable finales of the last decade are The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2. A comparison of the opening weekend for each of the respective predecessors illustrates that there was a note-worthy increase: a 22% increase from Two Towers to The Return of the King; a 44% improvement from Star Wars: Episode II to Episode III; and a 35% escalation from Part 1 to Part 2 of the Harry Potter finale. However, The Dark Knight Rises has one advantage the other two finales did not—a cryptic ending. Unlike Lord of the Rings 3 and Harry Potter 8, Nolan’s superhero film is not based on a book thereby making the ending a mystery. This “darkness” effectively creates a higher level of anticipation and hype. An example of the hype is the attack on negative reviewers on the review aggregator site, Rotten Tomatoes, for the final “Batman” tentpole. Such an increased interest over the internet would reflect the ticket sales of the film.

Although the film’s marketing campaign has not grown gradually from film-to-film as it has for The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises’ promotion has been steadily building up for four years, starting with a viral campaign and ending with the pre-release of the Hans Zimmer soundtrack. The introduction of the soundtrack effectively creates more enthusiasm as it allows the fans to envision what is to come in the film.

Both the trailers and the posters have belabored the tagline—“The Legend Ends”—in order to highlight finality of the series thereby making the movie a must-see attraction. Along with this tagline, the previews have focused on the action and the IMAX aspects—the film features more than 70 minutes of IMAX footage. The two previous films mainly attracted male adults and the promotion of the film was targeted for this demographic. As a means to widen the audience, most of the trailers focus on Catwoman—the femininity of the film—who is popular in the female world. The ball and dance scene with Catwoman also presents a mysterious relationship between Batman and Catwoman—one that will surely attract many females. 

With the absence of the Joker in this film, another villain that is probably even stronger than Wayne was needed to create fear in much of the audience; the best choice was Bane. Even one of the posters depicts a shattered Batman mask on the ground, which may suggest the death of Batman. The possibility that Batman may die, not only heightens the alacrity of fans, but also invokes a variety of emotions in the audience. The ultimate question in this marketing move is “Will Batman die?”

Other than the 3D downside, Nolan’s finale suffers from a near- 3 hour runtime that is challenging theater owners in meeting all the demand. One of the solutions is to screen the film continuously for 24-72 hours at some of the location. The chain, along with AMC Theaters, offers 3:30 a.m.- 4 a.m. show times on Friday. It is also opening in a record-breaking 332 IMAX locations that will surely accommodate the IMAX demands. It is possible this move will lead to the biggest-opening day; Deathly Hallows - Part 2's opening day record is at stake!

Opening in a superhero record 4,404 locations, The Dark Knight Rises will have no trouble garnering more than $180 million over its 3-day debut. Expect a record shattering $210.5 million.

Pros:

1. IMAX surcharge
2. Wide Release—4,404 locations and 332 IMAX locations, each of which is more than that of The Avengers.
3. Release Date—Its summer time: No school, everyone is out and running.
4. The sense of closure: The Dark Knight Rises is a finale, a must-see film.

Cons:

1. Absence of 3D
2. Long Runtime (164 minutes), so less showings.

Opening Weekend Forecast: $210.5 million

Forecast: Will the 'fourquel' have any luck?-Ice Age 4

The 3D animated PG rated film is back in another "Ice Age." The Ice Age franchise has seen a strong escalation in total revenue from the first Ice Age, which grossed $383 million worldwide, to the third Ice Age, which grossed $886 million. Now if that same rise applies to Ice Age 4, then it has a very high chance of passing the billion-dollar mark. However, Ice Age 3 was the first film in the franchise to be in 3D that enhanced the total revenue tremendously for the international market with $690 million (50% increase from Ice Age 2). The North American market, on the other hand, did not see a jump (0.006% increase from Ice Age 2, and 11% from Ice Age). It rarely happens that a fourth entry in a franchise experiences an increase. Shrek Forever After is an apt example of the situation, it ended its run with the lowest North American revenue in the franchise with $238.7 million .Therefore, Ice Age 4 will have no trouble grossing more than $150 million but anything more than $200 million is highly unlikely. This weekend does not seem to summon any new animated competitors but still Brave and Madagascar 3 are included in this weekend choice list for both parents and children.

Expect Ice Age: Continental Drift to take in $50.6 million this weekend.

Top three predictions for the July 13-15, 2012 weekend:

  1- Ice Age: Continental Drift - $49.6 million

        2-The Amazing Spider-Man - $31.4 million

        3- Ted (2012) - $22.1 million

'The Amazing Spider-Man' scores $62 million over its opening weekend

The Amazing-Spider Man topped the box office, this post-holiday weekend, with a modest $62 million, at 4,318 locations. The film has now raked in $137.0 million over its six-day debut. 3D sales accounted for 44% of the weekend gross while IMAX contributed 10%. Last year, another movie—Transformers: Dark of the Moon—was also promoted with high 3D effects similar to the Spider-man reboot, but it had a 60% 3D share. Yet, most films falls in the range of 40-50% notably Pirates 4, Cars 2, and Green Lantern. Therefore, 44% seems on par with other films.


In comparison to other Spider-Man films, Webb’s reboot ranks the lowest both in terms of opening weekend and in terms of six-day openings. Spider-Man, Spider-Man 2, and Spider-Man 3 pulled in $144.2 million, $180.1 million, and $176.2 million respectively over their six-day rollout. However, such a comparison isn't that simple as most of these films lived of the success of its predecessors. The only closest figure is Spider-Man’s $144 million six-day cume but then again the opening days were different. Even so, the 3D boost and 8-year inflation should have given the reboot a chance to shine but as most reboots present—they never perform like the original. 


Transformers, which opened on the same day in 2007, grossed $70.6 million over its opening weekend for a cumulative six-day gross of $155.4 million. That is notably 14% higher than The Amazing Spider-Man’s six-day debut. Both films are the first in their franchise, yet the new Spider-Man pic still earned less. What is even more inauspicious is the fact that Webb’s superhero tentpole scored the highest-Tuesday gross but experienced very steep drops, over 30%, in the following days. It is possible that this does not bode well-hold ups in the coming weeks. However, Sony seems to be proud with the new Superhero’s numbers with one executive stating, “In the world of reboots, it’s pretty spectacular.”

And it’s true in the world of reboots, The Amazing Spider-Man does seem to net its way to the top. Other remarkable reboots of successful franchises include Batman Begins (2005), Superman Returns (2006), and X-Men: First Class (2011). Opening on a Wednesday in June 2005, Batman Begins earned $48.8 million over its opening weekend, which is significantly less than the new Spider-Man reboot even when adjusted to inflation. Similarly, both Superman Returns' opening of $52.5 million and X-Men: First Class’ $55.1 million fall short compared to The Amazing Spider-Man’s opening gross. Batman Begins (2005), Superman Returns (2006), and X-Men: First Class (2011) each eventually grossed $205.3 million, $200.1 million, and $146.4 million respectively. What seems even more interesting is how the sequel to Batman Begins—The Dark Knight—became the third-highest grossing movie. As Columbia Pictures has already started the production of a sequel to the Spider-Man reboot, it portends good earnings for the upcoming sequel.

Although the Spider-Man brand has strong public appeal in North America, it will not be enough for The Amazing Spider-Man to rake in numbers similar to those of Rami’s films—Spider Man 1, 2, 3—each of which ultimately grossed more than $300 million. In North America, the film should make between $220-$270 million. Internationally, on the other hand, the movie is making strong debuts in much of Asia and already holds a $201.6 million haul.

North American Forecast: $257 million

'The Amazing Spider Man': Earns the Biggest Tuesday Gross

Current estimates by Sony place The Amazing Spider-Man's Tuesday earnings close to $35 million, surpassing Transformers’ $27.9 million gross to become the highest-grossing Tuesday opener. Although a record breaker, The Amazing Spider-Man did not have much competition in breaking this record as very few films of the same blockbuster level open on Tuesdays. The only other notable Tuesday-opener is Micheal Bay's Transformers, which opened in 2007—adjusting to both inflation and 3D premiums Transformers' opening will mount to somewhere around $35 million.

From 4,011 locations, Transformers eventually grossed $155.4 million in its Tuesday to Sunday run. Webb's reboot earned $7.5 million in its midnight showings, which is slightly less, than Transformers’ $8.8 million ($10.1 million, adjust. to infl.). With this trend, The Amazing Spider-Man can easily gross $166.1 million. However, the fact that some critics are panning it for being a derivative of the original Spider-Man film does not put the new Spider-Man in a better situation. At Flixter, 84% of the audience is fond of the movie, which counters the negative reviews from quite a few critics. Ultimately, the success of the film is contingent on the audience's opinion not that of the critics. Expect $143.0 million  for the films six-day debut. 


*News suggests that the success of the film has led way to a trilogy so a new Spider-Man franchise is not far away.

The Amazing Spider Man: International Forecast

Non-North American (International)

In the previous Spider-Man franchise, international earnings were always great; increasing from the first film to the last by over 32.6%. Spider Man 3 grossed $554.3 million, the highest international earning in all the franchise, while Spider Man grossed $418.0 million. It is clear that the Spider-Man franchise has strong market-holds in many international territories.

From 2007 to 2012, many non-North American markets would have grown, notably China—a flourishing territory in box office revenues—Russia, and Brazil. The Amazing Spider-Man should have no trouble earning more than $250 million internationally, considering the fact that it even has a 3D punch. All the previous Spider Man movies were released in 2D and at a time where IMAX theaters were not in huge numbers and less prevalent. Now, there are more than 580 IMAX venues internationally.

In 13 international markets, The Amazing Spider-Man opened on June 28-30, garnering a strong $50.2 million. The new reboot has already surpassed the opening of The Avengers in two countries—Korea where the new 3D reboot debuted to $13 million which is $3 million more than the opening of The Avengers, and India where it opened to  $6 million which is the biggest-opening for an American film. In Korea and India, The Avengers went on to gross more than $50 million and $13 million respectively. With these revenues, Webb's reboot.is on a propitious start.


Final International Forecast: $540 million

The Amazing Spider Man: Opening Weekend Forecast

North American
Ten years ago, the first Spider-man movie shocked box-office observers by earning more than $100 million over its opening weekend—a record than no other film had accomplished at the time. Out of all films, the super-hero film prevailed and amassed a huge number of fans to earn $114.8 million during its debut. Now, that number would seem weak compared to The Avengers’ staggering $207.4 million debut. However, it should be made clear that Avengers was boosted with 3D higher ticket premiums and 10-year inflation. Even with adjusting to inflation, Spider Man’s opening is $156.6 million, which still falls short next to The Avengers. Either way, if the new reboot, The Amazing Spider-Man, grosses that much then a new franchise is a foregone conclusion.

Our “Spidey” superhero is set hit theaters on July 3, 2012 with an “untold story.” Columbia Pictures decided to reboot the whole franchise only 5 years after the last Spider Man movie—Spider Man 3. The new reboot, with a new name, is being marketed as “The Untold Story.” Columbia marketing techniques are trying to make this new reboot outstand compare to Spider Man. A notable attempt is changing the name of the reboot to “The Amazing Spider-Man.” Although taken from a comic book title, this only serves to create a new atmosphere for the reboot. Most of the previews confirm this by illustrating a new look—a darker look—at Spider Man’s life. Even Sony realized that the “untold story” facet of the campaign wouldn’t suffice so they changed their tagline to something more congruous with the title—“Prepare to be Amazed.” Several non-amazed critics, on the other hand, believe that the so-called reboot is but a replay of the original film—this may indeed be true but could also cause fans to dismiss the movie as a mere reiteration and reportrayal of the original. Currently, the film holds a decent 77% approval rating on rotten tomatoes.  Sony pictures should have anticipated such a consequence in the production of the reboot so soon.

In better light Facebook, likes have increased for The Amazing Spider Man, running at around 1.5 million likes, which suggests interest in the movie by many fans. Considering the fact that it has not been released yet, it stands well compared to the original 2002 Spider Man movie that has approximately 4.1 million likes. Even with all the other blockbusters this year, the Spider-man reboot has acquired more than 53 million views on almost all trailers. The Dark Knight Rises has attained 97 million views which is in part due to a renowned director (Nolan) and a well-established franchise. Regardless, all these signs suggest a good interest in the movie and one that may indeed grow next week. However, only one worrying note seems to be the problem; it may pull in good numbers over the opening weekend but in the long-run interest may fade away mainly because of The Dark Knight Rises (which is set to be released 17 days after the Amazing Spider Man) and the common plot points of the 2002 film. If the film does truly mirror the original then it will cause fans to retract and a final North American gross of anything above $250 million will be improbable.

A similar reboot-type film released in recent years is X-Men: First Class , but this film wasn’t haunted by claims of “seen it and done it”. X-Men First Class debuted to $55.1 million while the first X-Men opened to $54.5 million. Adjusted to inflation, however, the first X-Men opened to $80.1 million. As seen in many other cases, reboots never truly out-perform the original.

In order to give the Marc Webb's reboot as much time as possible to drain its money from fans before the release of The Dark Knight Rises, Columbia Pictures decided to release the film 3 days before the usual Friday which in this case means July 3, 2012. With 17 days until it faces The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider Man can make quick money. A similar situation happened to Spider Man 2 but instead of opening on Tuesday it opened on a Wednesday.Therefore, it is unlikely even with higher ticket pricing, because of both the 3D and inflation, that The Amazing Spider Man will gross more than $114 million over its opening weekend. Expect a decent but not outstanding $65.6 million opening.

North American Opening Weekend Forecast: $65.6 million
North American Three-Day Opening Forecast: $71.2 million
Opening Week Forecast: $136.8 million

The Amazing Spider-Man: Box-Office expectations and forecast

Will the latest spider-man reboot live up to its predecessors?

Coming Soon